As of June 25, the producers of TR Crop Watch – which follows the weekly crop progress for two farmers in Illinois and one in Minnesota – are expecting to harvest merely an average-yielding corn and soybean crop this year since the weather has not been entirely cooperative. Recent conditions have also prompted one grower to cut expectations for his corn yield.

Cooler weather in recent days has slowed growth for corn and soybeans in Minnesota, but Illinois producers are generally welcoming of the cooler temperatures at this time – especially since many of the fields remain dry.

Although storms and rain targeted Illinois last week, their localized nature meant that many missed out on the good soaking that has been needed since late last month. Farmer A noted that some of his eastern Illinois fields are on the drier side, while others were too wet to spray with chemicals last week – a good demonstration of the isolated storm effects.

The producers - known as Farmers A, B and C – assign condition scores every week to each field, similar to the system used by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The ratings are: excellent – 5, good – 4, fair – 3, poor – 2, very poor – 1.

They also give their best estimation of yield potential. The yield ratings are: yields well above average – 5, slightly above – 4, average – 3, slightly below – 2, well below average – 1.

FARMER A – EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS

Farmer A corn, June 18 versus June 25: (tmsnrt.rs/2tNkNLa)

Farmer A soybeans, June 18 versus June 25: (tmsnrt.rs/2segbfa)

Farmer A’s Champaign County, Illinois, corn stands 6 feet (1.8 m) tall as of June 25, representing growth of 1.5 feet (0.46 m) on the week. The corn is about 10 days away from forming tassels, which marks the beginning of pollination.

Weather was highly favorable over the past week, with moderate temperatures and 1.5 inches (38 mm) of rain. A’s biggest concern for this field would be if the heat were to return, so he does not mind the continuation of cooler temperatures this week, which he views as positive for development.

A’s soybeans grew 3 inches (76 mm) this week and are now 14 inches (0.36 m) tall. The plants have not yet begun flowering – which marks the beginning of the reproductive stage – but other earlier-planted fields in his area have started.

The recent and expected cool weather is a neutral factor for the soybeans, in A’s opinion. He believes that cooler temperatures when the flowering stage begins – if coupled with drier conditions – can be more harmful to reproduction than hot temperatures accompanied by lots of rain.

The favorable weather over the past week led A to put his corn and soybean condition ratings back at 4 from 3 the previous week, but he still holds an average view of yield for both, maintaining the 3-rating.

FARMER B – SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA

Farmer B corn, June 18 versus June 25: (tmsnrt.rs/2temhky)

Farmer B soybeans, June 18 versus June 25: (tmsnrt.rs/2ses2K7)

Farmer B holds the most negative view of the recent and expected cooler temperatures, as they are delaying the growth of his corn and soybean field, located in Freeborn County, Minnesota. His soybeans did not grow at all over the last week because of the cooler weather, remaining at 7 inches (178 mm) tall on June 25.

A lot of this had to do with the fact that B sprayed these beans with weed-killing herbicide last week, which temporarily browns the leaves and slows growth as the plants ingest the chemicals. But once warm weather returns, the plants resume growth and regain their green color. This is why Farmer B needs warmer weather for his soybeans, which are still in the vegetative state.

B’s corn is now 30 inches (0.76 m) tall compared with 22 inches (0.56 m) the week before. This field is now about 20 to 25 days away from pollination, and despite receiving about 0.7 inch (18 mm) of rain last week, warm weather is desired as the corn is still advancing slowly.

Last week’s high temperatures in B’s area were in the mid-60s F and lows were in the high 40s F. The biggest concern B has for his crops is that it needs to warm up, but he is still optimistic about yield, which he left unchanged at 4 for both crops. He still rates the condition of both fields as a 5.

If given the choice between hot and wet weather versus cool and dry as the corn pollination and soybean reproductive stages begin, B would prefer hot and wet, because cool and dry can be worse for both crops during that period.

FARMER C – SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS

Farmer C corn, June 18 versus June 25: (tmsnrt.rs/2sJ8SzO)

Farmer C corn, June 18 versus June 25, lower quality soil: (tmsnrt.rs/2temV1K)

Farmer C soybeans, June 18 versus June 25: (tmsnrt.rs/2sesLuS)

Farmer C’s Crawford County, Illinois, corn field was largely missed by last week’s storm activity, which produced about 0.3 inch (8 mm) of rain on Friday and was the only accumulation for the week. Sufficient soaking rains are still badly needed in his area, but the cooler temperatures last week prevented the condition from deteriorating much further.

Corn in C’s sample spot is now 6 feet (1.8 m) tall compared with 4.5 feet (1.4 m) the week prior, but some of the corn on lower-quality soil is only 4 feet (1.2 m) tall. This is only prevalent in about 20 percent of the field, but C says the yield on this spot could be cut in half from expectations.

As such, C reduced his view on corn yield to a 2 from a 3 last week, as he believes average yield may no longer be possible based on the adverse weather conditions up until this point. He left the condition rating unchanged at 3.

Cooler weather over the next week will be positive for both corn and soybeans, since the area has been so dry. Corn is about seven days away from producing tassels, and the soybeans have entered the beginning stage of reproduction as flowers have begun to appear.

C’s soybeans are knee-high as of June 25 compared with about 14 inches (0.36 m) in the previous week. C left his soybean condition rating unchanged on the week at 4, but lowered his view on yield to a 3 from 4 last week.

FOLLOW ALONG

Be sure to check back for future updates. There are more photos of this week’s Thomson Reuters Crop Watch update – including aerial footage – at the following page: (bit.ly/2qKyEPR)

I will also be posting content on Twitter using the hashtag #TRCropWatch.

The latest GFS and EC weather model runs in each of the farmers' agricultural districts are available on the Thomson Reuters Agriculture Weather Dashboard U.S. Midwest page:

(cpurl://apps.cp./cms/?pageid=awd-us-midwest-gfsop&meta-15=USA.AgMidwest)